Survival probabilities of atmospheric particles: comparison based on theory, cluster population simulations, and observations in Beijing

Abstract. Atmospheric new particle formation (NPF) events are regularly observed in urban Beijing, despite high concentrations of background particles which, based on theory, should inhibit NPF due to values coagulation sink (CoagS). The survival probability, which depends both CoagS and growth rate (GR), is a key parameter determining the occurrence as it describes fraction newly formed that survive from smaller diameter larger diameter. In this study, we investigate compare probabilities 1.5 3 nm (J3/J1.5), 6 (J6/J3), 10 (J10/J6) analytical formulae, cluster population simulations, atmospheric observations Beijing. We find simulations one formulae good agreement. However, at low ratios between condensation (CS) GR, sub-3 clusters, cluster–cluster collisions efficiently lower simulations. Due large clusters small required considerably affect probabilities, consider unlikely significantly probabilities. J10/J6 Beijing show variability, most likely influences primary emissions, but average relatively agreement with formulae. J6/J3 mostly than those predicted could be explained by uncertainties CS GR. J3/J1.5 / GR much higher argue or solely explain under conditions. Thus, further work needed better understand factors influencing polluted environments.